Israeli Geopolitical goals in Palestine–Final Ethnic Cleansing?
Graham E. Fuller
4 December 2023
———————–
Winston Churchill reportedly once commented, ”Never let a good crisis go to waste.” This remark takes on unsettling relevance in viewing the present crisis and slaughter in Gaza.
Alastair Crooke, the former British diplomat and longtime deeply insightful observer of Middle East geopolitics wrote in a recent commentary that Israel’s strategy under Netanyahu’s ultra right wing religious and nationalist cabinet is to maintain whelming public support for the twin goals of the destruction of the “Hamas regime and its capabilities”and the release of all Israeli captives in Gaza.
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/opinion/netanyahu-and-his-cabinet-are-taking–israel–to-biblical-ar
Crooke is undoubtedly correct that this rationale dominates Israel’s strategic thinking. He also notes that Washington is all but incapable of dissuading Israeli from its harsh strategies.
In fact, if we take a darker view of the truly long-term aspirations of Israel’s geopolitical thinking going back to the early days of the Israeli state, an even more brutal long term goal comes to mind.
Churchill’s dictum suggests that the bloody Hamas attack upon an Israeli kibbutz on 7 October offered an extraordinary opening–a decisive opportunity now for the fulfillment of the most extreme Zionist vision in Israel–the total and definitive ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians from all of Palestine in order to finally achieve a truly homogeneous Jewish Israeli state.
There are several reasons for suspecting this agenda may prevail.
First, There are scant indications that Netanyahu and his cabinet have any desire to listen to American preferences about the conduct of its war against Palestinians. American proposals, weak, timid and unrealistic, have proven incompatible with Israeli strategists. There are numerous off the record quotations of Netanyahu stating that he will “never permit a Palestinian state to come into being” and that he is the “only leader capable of manipulating the US as Israel wishes.”
Second, it is well known that Netanyahu faces potential jail time in Israel’s court system for what the New York Times calls “a litany of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges.” Only the fact that Netanyahu is the serving Prime Minister of the nation spares him right now from being brought to trial. The sooner the war comes to an end the greater the likelihood that Netanyahu will not only have to step down as Prime Minister and will then be forced into deep legal and criminal challenges. Therefore Netanyahu has every good reason for insisting that this war must continue on for many more months or even “a year” to achieve its alleged goal, the “total eradication of Hamas”–if only to save his own skin before the Israeli courts.
But serious analysis would indicate thatNetanyahu aspires to a far more ambitious and sweeping goal ,well beyond such petty court cases. Netanyahu seeks to become perhaps the greatest hero of Israel’s entire history in bringing about the final solution of the “Palestinian problem” by expelling the entire population from all of Israel forever. Such an ambition is far too horrific for Israel to articulate in public at this point but it is the inexorable logic behind most utterances of Israel’s right wing cabinet.
Here is where Churchill’s view of crisis resides: in the fog of agony and war lies the opportunity to once and for all solve the intractable problem of what to do with dispossessed Palestinians as residents of Palestine going back centuries.
Already the Palestinian residents of Gaza are under extraordinarily brutal pressure by the Israeli army to abandon their devastated homes, unburied family members, demolished urban areas, hospitals, public services, etc. “Leave or die” is essentially the option offered by the Israeli army to this population.
But the problem is not limited only to Gaza. Palestinians living on the West Bank have also been subject to bloody attacks and harsh measures, expropriation of lands, destruction of their homes, farms, orchards, loss of livelihood –all under quasi-military assault by an ideologized, harsh ultra-right wing settler population that enjoys the full backing of the Israeli state in the ongoing appropriation of Palestinian lands. In short, all the necessary mechanisms for the ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians are now present.
There can be no doubt that with this campaign Israel is already paying a massive price in its moral and diplomatic standing in the world. While this reality may not be fully evident to those of us living in the West where what we hear is primarily the Israeli, narrative, it only takes a quick look at the vast sweep of journalistic and public opinion across “the Global South” and the UN to understand the rising intensity of hostility to Israel as a state now. And of course one of the great tragedies of the Jews as a people with an already tragic history behind them is that the dividing line now between hostility to the policies of the Israeli government on the one hand, and the development of broader anti-Semitic attitudes on the other becomes ever more blurred.
Yet it is easy to imagine the rationale in the heads of Netanyahu’s extreme right wing cabinet. “Yes,” the thinking will run, ” Israel will be condemned for 20, maybe even 30 years by meaningless and toothless international public opinion. But Israel will forever have achieved its own secure state. The world has a short memory and ever new international crises will eventually arise to distract global thinking. Sooner or later the Palestinian issue will be all but forgotten.”
It is hard to argue with this brutal logic. Washington can wring its hands and complain all it wants but nothing will change in US policy in any meaningful way. It is hard-baked into Congress by the massive monies that flow to it from Israel’s supporters. Netanyahu is going for the truly great prize and Washington’s considerations are trivial, all but irrelevant–and to some, even distantly desirable–in this supreme Israeli state goal.
The only real game changer to all of this dark scenario might come if this war spreads to a broader and more horrendous battlefield. There are many in Washington and in Israel itching for an opportunity to “take Tehran out.” Ditto for Syria and perhaps a desire to intimidate Turkey. And to demonstrate that Washington– not Moscow and not Beijing–must be the sole determining voice in such a global crisis. In that case Washington might find itself compelled to go to war directly on behalf of Israel against all of Israel’s enemies. How would that kind of a conflict shake out on the international stage?
Finally,Israel’s calculation may well be that if it is going to inevitably come to that kind of a regional war it is better to do so now while at least American public opinion has not yet generationally shifted decisively against Israel. Ditto for irrelevant Europe. Meanwhile, the rationale might run, it is wiser to conduct such a definitive war right now while Arab states are still weak and controlled by conservative and timid Arab monarchs who fear mass nationalist passions arising in their own countries. That is precisely the great danger that the very concept of “Palestine” poses to frightened Arab autocracy. Understandably, countries like Egypt do not wish to accept the huge economic and security burden of accepting displaced and radicalised Palestinians onto their soil. And weak Arab leader ship understandably fears being seen as having facilitated the ultimate ethnic cleansing and “elimination of the Palestinian issue.” We might put this into context by considering what the outrageous moral and ethical implications would be if great White wealth within the United States would put up large sums of money to help transfer the American Black population safely back to Africa – in the name of “calming US racial tensions.”
Sadly too, it does not take too much imagination to imagine that the instinct to punish and take revenge on Israel– and the US– for this Gazan bloodbath by radicalised sympathizers with Palestine will emerge from within western societies over the coming years–shades of 9/11.
————————-
Graham E. Fuller is a former CIA operations officer, and former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council for long term forecasting at CIA. He served 21 years in the Muslim world.
Israeli Geopolitical goals in Palestine–Final Ethnic Cleansing?
December 6, 2023 by Graham E. Fuller • Uncategorized • Tags: Ethnic Cleansing, Graham Fuller, Israel, Palestine •
Israeli Geopolitical goals in Palestine–Final Ethnic Cleansing?
Graham E. Fuller
4 December 2023
———————–
Winston Churchill reportedly once commented, ”Never let a good crisis go to waste.” This remark takes on unsettling relevance in viewing the present crisis and slaughter in Gaza.
Alastair Crooke, the former British diplomat and longtime deeply insightful observer of Middle East geopolitics wrote in a recent commentary that Israel’s strategy under Netanyahu’s ultra right wing religious and nationalist cabinet is to maintain whelming public support for the twin goals of the destruction of the “Hamas regime and its capabilities”and the release of all Israeli captives in Gaza.
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/opinion/netanyahu-and-his-cabinet-are-taking–israel–to-biblical-ar
Crooke is undoubtedly correct that this rationale dominates Israel’s strategic thinking. He also notes that Washington is all but incapable of dissuading Israeli from its harsh strategies.
In fact, if we take a darker view of the truly long-term aspirations of Israel’s geopolitical thinking going back to the early days of the Israeli state, an even more brutal long term goal comes to mind.
Churchill’s dictum suggests that the bloody Hamas attack upon an Israeli kibbutz on 7 October offered an extraordinary opening–a decisive opportunity now for the fulfillment of the most extreme Zionist vision in Israel–the total and definitive ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians from all of Palestine in order to finally achieve a truly homogeneous Jewish Israeli state.
There are several reasons for suspecting this agenda may prevail.
First, There are scant indications that Netanyahu and his cabinet have any desire to listen to American preferences about the conduct of its war against Palestinians. American proposals, weak, timid and unrealistic, have proven incompatible with Israeli strategists. There are numerous off the record quotations of Netanyahu stating that he will “never permit a Palestinian state to come into being” and that he is the “only leader capable of manipulating the US as Israel wishes.”
Second, it is well known that Netanyahu faces potential jail time in Israel’s court system for what the New York Times calls “a litany of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust charges.” Only the fact that Netanyahu is the serving Prime Minister of the nation spares him right now from being brought to trial. The sooner the war comes to an end the greater the likelihood that Netanyahu will not only have to step down as Prime Minister and will then be forced into deep legal and criminal challenges. Therefore Netanyahu has every good reason for insisting that this war must continue on for many more months or even “a year” to achieve its alleged goal, the “total eradication of Hamas”–if only to save his own skin before the Israeli courts.
But serious analysis would indicate thatNetanyahu aspires to a far more ambitious and sweeping goal ,well beyond such petty court cases. Netanyahu seeks to become perhaps the greatest hero of Israel’s entire history in bringing about the final solution of the “Palestinian problem” by expelling the entire population from all of Israel forever. Such an ambition is far too horrific for Israel to articulate in public at this point but it is the inexorable logic behind most utterances of Israel’s right wing cabinet.
Here is where Churchill’s view of crisis resides: in the fog of agony and war lies the opportunity to once and for all solve the intractable problem of what to do with dispossessed Palestinians as residents of Palestine going back centuries.
Already the Palestinian residents of Gaza are under extraordinarily brutal pressure by the Israeli army to abandon their devastated homes, unburied family members, demolished urban areas, hospitals, public services, etc. “Leave or die” is essentially the option offered by the Israeli army to this population.
But the problem is not limited only to Gaza. Palestinians living on the West Bank have also been subject to bloody attacks and harsh measures, expropriation of lands, destruction of their homes, farms, orchards, loss of livelihood –all under quasi-military assault by an ideologized, harsh ultra-right wing settler population that enjoys the full backing of the Israeli state in the ongoing appropriation of Palestinian lands. In short, all the necessary mechanisms for the ethnic cleansing of all Palestinians are now present.
There can be no doubt that with this campaign Israel is already paying a massive price in its moral and diplomatic standing in the world. While this reality may not be fully evident to those of us living in the West where what we hear is primarily the Israeli, narrative, it only takes a quick look at the vast sweep of journalistic and public opinion across “the Global South” and the UN to understand the rising intensity of hostility to Israel as a state now. And of course one of the great tragedies of the Jews as a people with an already tragic history behind them is that the dividing line now between hostility to the policies of the Israeli government on the one hand, and the development of broader anti-Semitic attitudes on the other becomes ever more blurred.
Yet it is easy to imagine the rationale in the heads of Netanyahu’s extreme right wing cabinet. “Yes,” the thinking will run, ” Israel will be condemned for 20, maybe even 30 years by meaningless and toothless international public opinion. But Israel will forever have achieved its own secure state. The world has a short memory and ever new international crises will eventually arise to distract global thinking. Sooner or later the Palestinian issue will be all but forgotten.”
It is hard to argue with this brutal logic. Washington can wring its hands and complain all it wants but nothing will change in US policy in any meaningful way. It is hard-baked into Congress by the massive monies that flow to it from Israel’s supporters. Netanyahu is going for the truly great prize and Washington’s considerations are trivial, all but irrelevant–and to some, even distantly desirable–in this supreme Israeli state goal.
The only real game changer to all of this dark scenario might come if this war spreads to a broader and more horrendous battlefield. There are many in Washington and in Israel itching for an opportunity to “take Tehran out.” Ditto for Syria and perhaps a desire to intimidate Turkey. And to demonstrate that Washington– not Moscow and not Beijing–must be the sole determining voice in such a global crisis. In that case Washington might find itself compelled to go to war directly on behalf of Israel against all of Israel’s enemies. How would that kind of a conflict shake out on the international stage?
Finally,Israel’s calculation may well be that if it is going to inevitably come to that kind of a regional war it is better to do so now while at least American public opinion has not yet generationally shifted decisively against Israel. Ditto for irrelevant Europe. Meanwhile, the rationale might run, it is wiser to conduct such a definitive war right now while Arab states are still weak and controlled by conservative and timid Arab monarchs who fear mass nationalist passions arising in their own countries. That is precisely the great danger that the very concept of “Palestine” poses to frightened Arab autocracy. Understandably, countries like Egypt do not wish to accept the huge economic and security burden of accepting displaced and radicalised Palestinians onto their soil. And weak Arab leader ship understandably fears being seen as having facilitated the ultimate ethnic cleansing and “elimination of the Palestinian issue.” We might put this into context by considering what the outrageous moral and ethical implications would be if great White wealth within the United States would put up large sums of money to help transfer the American Black population safely back to Africa – in the name of “calming US racial tensions.”
Sadly too, it does not take too much imagination to imagine that the instinct to punish and take revenge on Israel– and the US– for this Gazan bloodbath by radicalised sympathizers with Palestine will emerge from within western societies over the coming years–shades of 9/11.
————————-
Graham E. Fuller is a former CIA operations officer, and former vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council for long term forecasting at CIA. He served 21 years in the Muslim world.