Graham E. Fuller
17 October 2023
The surprise and savage attack by Hamas against Israeli civilians and military installations last week unquestionably can be termed a massacre. Many might add that it was also a colossal blunder and self-defeating act in the political sense that it will help neither Hamas nor the Palestinian cause. This observation deserves greater scrutiny.
Hamas was probably quite aware of a n inevitable brutal Israeli response. Yet this operation was probably quite deliberately designed precisely to send a message of deliberate shock– to Israel and to the world–in which the operation has more than succeeded. And of course the ability of the Israeli state to wreak ferocious vengeance \upon all Palestinians and their institutions vastly outweighs the blood and damage that Hamas was able to impose upon Israel –in any physical or military sense.. But even that is not the whole story. As a strategic, even geostrategic and psychological operation, the ultimate verdict is not yet clear. Let me be clear that we are talking here about the political language of global relations and not the more complex issue of trying to weigh competing moralities.
Observers should therefore not be too quick to draw sweeping conclusions about who, in the long run, will “benefit” and who will “lose” from this whole sequence of ugly events — events that are still unfolding. The winners and losers indeed extend beyond Israel/Palestine itself.
But how do we react to horror like this? One way is by responding with equal or greater punitive acts or horror. Certainly that is already the response of the Israeli state. But I suspect there are large numbers of people out there who are both truly horrified by Hamas actions and who also feel impelled to reject further acts of savage retribution by Israel that will not bring solutions; views among people who increasingly believe that finally something truly decisive must be done to bring a halt to all this madness — regardless of whether one is sympathetic to the Palestinians or not. A cynic might say that at the end of the day ultimately nothing will change. But we now find new concerns and pressures emerging from the new quarters of China and the Global South. And the ugly incidents and confrontations increasing taking place in the streets and universities of America between pro-Palestinian/American Muslims vs American Jews — are actually now spreading across much of the world, violent and nonviolent , and are producing a new sense of urgency.
We already have news reports from around the world that most of the “Global South” and BRICS states are in broad sympathy with the Palestinians. They perceive Israel as yet another “white” Western state classically oppressing indigenous peoples in a latter-day colonial enterprise. Its actions are perceived as a white racist undertaking with nearly the full, almost unwavering chorus of official western support for Israel. This is especially true in the US whose mentality reverts automatically back to 9/11. If there was any doubt about the racial character of western responses it is most clearly embodied in the purely one-sided rhetoric of President Biden himself.
Yes, Palestinians will probably end up paying a significant price in blood and destruction before this is over. But already much of the coverage is slowly shifting away from the Israeli victims to the Palestinian victims and victims-to-be—perceptions that have real resonance in the Global South. Need we be reminded that that this non-Western grouping includes the powerful states of Russia and China. And so far Chinese and Russian statements and policies towards this conflict — whatever their motivations may be – clearly appear more rational, balanced and statesmanlike to most of the rest of the world than the emotionally biased rhetoric coming out of Washington.
Shocking events like these can create truly long-term shockwaves. It is easy to argue that Osama bin Laden’s attack against the World Trade Center on 9/11 has had incalculable long term impact and damage upon the psychological foundations of US foreign policy– greatly in excess of anything that bin Laden could ever have anticipated. So now it seems the Hamas shock may well be contributing to the growing split of a different kind, now between “the West and the Rest.” Given the rising economic, political, cultural and even social power of the emerging Global South, this shift in the global balance of international perceptions does not augur well for the US or Israel. In a sense it is just one more nail — and there will be many more to come – in the coffin of unchallenged power of Washington and of the declining West –to shape the world to its liking. We have seen this already in the strong disinclination of the Global South and the BRICS countries to support the United States in backing Ukraine or condemning Russia–another “white man’s fight” whose interpretation Washington has sought to impose upon the rest of the world.
These events in Israel alone do not in themselves of course represent a pivotal moment in global relations. But they do represent yet another significant and symptomatic event in the gradual bifurcation of East/West power and sense of identity. These blocs of course are not homogeneous and their impact will be gradual and difficult to gauge. But I would argue that it nonetheless betokens an important deeper trend that does not bode well for Washington or Western Europe whose reins upon the world are slipping. And Israel will be perceived as an integral part of that western power bloc, acting mainly at western behest in the Middle East. This bloody operation by Hamas may set off deeper reflections about the Western and US geopolitical order in the Global South.
Perhaps Harvard scholar Steven Walt summed it up well in suggesting that Israel could indeed win the battle against Hamas and lose the war–true also for Washington.
—————————————————
Graham E Fuller served as a CIA operations officer for nine years in the Middle East and later served as Vice Chairman of the national intelligence Council overseeing all national forecasting.
231017- Did Hamas Succeed or Fail in its Operation?
October 17, 2023 by Graham E. Fuller • Uncategorized •
Graham E. Fuller
17 October 2023
The surprise and savage attack by Hamas against Israeli civilians and military installations last week unquestionably can be termed a massacre. Many might add that it was also a colossal blunder and self-defeating act in the political sense that it will help neither Hamas nor the Palestinian cause. This observation deserves greater scrutiny.
Hamas was probably quite aware of a n inevitable brutal Israeli response. Yet this operation was probably quite deliberately designed precisely to send a message of deliberate shock– to Israel and to the world–in which the operation has more than succeeded. And of course the ability of the Israeli state to wreak ferocious vengeance \upon all Palestinians and their institutions vastly outweighs the blood and damage that Hamas was able to impose upon Israel –in any physical or military sense.. But even that is not the whole story. As a strategic, even geostrategic and psychological operation, the ultimate verdict is not yet clear. Let me be clear that we are talking here about the political language of global relations and not the more complex issue of trying to weigh competing moralities.
Observers should therefore not be too quick to draw sweeping conclusions about who, in the long run, will “benefit” and who will “lose” from this whole sequence of ugly events — events that are still unfolding. The winners and losers indeed extend beyond Israel/Palestine itself.
But how do we react to horror like this? One way is by responding with equal or greater punitive acts or horror. Certainly that is already the response of the Israeli state. But I suspect there are large numbers of people out there who are both truly horrified by Hamas actions and who also feel impelled to reject further acts of savage retribution by Israel that will not bring solutions; views among people who increasingly believe that finally something truly decisive must be done to bring a halt to all this madness — regardless of whether one is sympathetic to the Palestinians or not. A cynic might say that at the end of the day ultimately nothing will change. But we now find new concerns and pressures emerging from the new quarters of China and the Global South. And the ugly incidents and confrontations increasing taking place in the streets and universities of America between pro-Palestinian/American Muslims vs American Jews — are actually now spreading across much of the world, violent and nonviolent , and are producing a new sense of urgency.
We already have news reports from around the world that most of the “Global South” and BRICS states are in broad sympathy with the Palestinians. They perceive Israel as yet another “white” Western state classically oppressing indigenous peoples in a latter-day colonial enterprise. Its actions are perceived as a white racist undertaking with nearly the full, almost unwavering chorus of official western support for Israel. This is especially true in the US whose mentality reverts automatically back to 9/11. If there was any doubt about the racial character of western responses it is most clearly embodied in the purely one-sided rhetoric of President Biden himself.
Yes, Palestinians will probably end up paying a significant price in blood and destruction before this is over. But already much of the coverage is slowly shifting away from the Israeli victims to the Palestinian victims and victims-to-be—perceptions that have real resonance in the Global South. Need we be reminded that that this non-Western grouping includes the powerful states of Russia and China. And so far Chinese and Russian statements and policies towards this conflict — whatever their motivations may be – clearly appear more rational, balanced and statesmanlike to most of the rest of the world than the emotionally biased rhetoric coming out of Washington.
Shocking events like these can create truly long-term shockwaves. It is easy to argue that Osama bin Laden’s attack against the World Trade Center on 9/11 has had incalculable long term impact and damage upon the psychological foundations of US foreign policy– greatly in excess of anything that bin Laden could ever have anticipated. So now it seems the Hamas shock may well be contributing to the growing split of a different kind, now between “the West and the Rest.” Given the rising economic, political, cultural and even social power of the emerging Global South, this shift in the global balance of international perceptions does not augur well for the US or Israel. In a sense it is just one more nail — and there will be many more to come – in the coffin of unchallenged power of Washington and of the declining West –to shape the world to its liking. We have seen this already in the strong disinclination of the Global South and the BRICS countries to support the United States in backing Ukraine or condemning Russia–another “white man’s fight” whose interpretation Washington has sought to impose upon the rest of the world.
These events in Israel alone do not in themselves of course represent a pivotal moment in global relations. But they do represent yet another significant and symptomatic event in the gradual bifurcation of East/West power and sense of identity. These blocs of course are not homogeneous and their impact will be gradual and difficult to gauge. But I would argue that it nonetheless betokens an important deeper trend that does not bode well for Washington or Western Europe whose reins upon the world are slipping. And Israel will be perceived as an integral part of that western power bloc, acting mainly at western behest in the Middle East. This bloody operation by Hamas may set off deeper reflections about the Western and US geopolitical order in the Global South.
Perhaps Harvard scholar Steven Walt summed it up well in suggesting that Israel could indeed win the battle against Hamas and lose the war–true also for Washington.
—————————————————
Graham E Fuller served as a CIA operations officer for nine years in the Middle East and later served as Vice Chairman of the national intelligence Council overseeing all national forecasting.